The work behind the board

A clear method for every signal.

PropDolphin is a research and comparison tool. This page explains what our numbers mean, what they do not mean, and where to apply your own judgment.

How we rank opportunities

The default Best opportunity view omits prices shorter than -400, then ranks each prop by estimated profit per unit staked using confidence-adjusted current-season support and the current price. When a sample is still developing, the de-vigged market probability provides the fallback; chance, edge, sample depth, and line freshness break ties.

How edge and fair probability work

Edge compares a sportsbook price with an estimated fair probability from Pinnacle's de-vigged reference market. Fair probability is the side probability after removing the reference market's vig. Expected value is the estimated return per unit staked at the displayed price.

How hit rates work

Hit rate is the observed result against this line from the current season; pushes are excluded from the percentage. Percentages are shown only after five current-season decisions. Smaller samples remain visible without a percentage.

How to read freshness

Prices are observations, not guarantees. Confirm the current line and availability with the sportsbook before betting.

Small samples stay visible, but stay labeled

At least 5 current-season decisions are required before a percentage is shown as a reliable hit rate. Early-season lines still display their odds, market context, and available history so you can see the opportunity without mistaking a thin sample for proof.

Explore the current boards

Start with a sport, then use the same evidence framework to compare prices and review the available sample.

Data and sportsbook prices can change. PropDolphin does not accept wagers, facilitate betting, or guarantee outcomes. Always confirm the current line directly with the sportsbook and follow our responsible gambling guidance.